Introduction
The
website of the Society for Psychical Research (SPR) has a page, dated 20 November 2009, entitled ‘Kuhnexus: database of the best cases of paradigmchallenging phenomena’ (retrieved 14 March 2013). This is listed as a ‘member project’, and
states that it is intended to be a:
“Collection
and classification of the best-in-class paradigm-challenging cases, to form a
basis and reference for research and theory building. Includes development of a suitable
classification system and case quality criteria. The project is led by David Rousseau,
Chairman of the [SPR’s] Research Activities Committee and Director of the [independent]
Centre for Fundamental & Anomalies Research (C-FAR).”
The
idea is to take the huge amount of research that has been done on anomalies, or
“special puzzle pieces” as they are termed, and make the whole range accessible
to as wide an audience as possible.
More, the special puzzle pieces can then be used to form a framework
which will enable interconnections to be seen between areas that are currently
considered as separate entities. This
framework will enable a deeper understanding of the phenomena to be achieved. This task will be facilitated by modern technology,
which can greatly assist with storage and keywords, assisting in the search for
correlations:
“For example,
one could easily locate the best apport cases, whether associated with séances,
poltergeists, jots [just-one-of-those-things], metal-bending children or UFOs.
Databases can be accessed over the internet, which means they can be widely
used. And because they are easy to update, they remain current and relevant.”
The
aim, then, is to create a database with:
“the most
important evidence for each kind of anomaly that seems to occur. We will
concentrate on those anomalies that seem to pose a significant challenge to
orthodox explanations. Since these are the anomalies that have the potential to
trigger a paradigm shift, we dub them Kuhnia, in honour of Thomas Kuhn, and the
database will be called The Kuhnexus. Significant challenges to orthodoxy
include more that just psi phenomena, and we will include such Kuhnia as ball
lighting, acupuncture, brain plasticity, Penrose crystals, etc.”
How
do you define an important case? Well,
“There are many
things that can make a case important. The obvious one is its evidentiality,
which is useful for people asking how confident we are that a specific type of
anomaly occurs. Beyond that, though, there are cases that are important for
their implications, or for what they tell us about the variability or
characteristics of a phenomenon. There is also significance in features that
are common to different types of cases. By creating a database of cases, which
can be sorted or filtered in different ways, different readers will be able to
focus on cases that are most relevant to their specific interests.”
Challenging
the Paradigm Systematically
The
project has been a long time in gestation.
David Rousseau outlined the rationale behind it in an article in the
SPR’s Journal in 2002, ‘Challenging
the Paradigm Systematically: A New and Generic Approach to Classifying
Anomalous Phenomena’. I have had to
simplify a fairly complex paper, and it is worth reading in its entirety. Essentially, the idea is twofold: use a systems
approach to develop a classification which would improve the organisation and accessibility
of data on anomalous phenomena; and make the information more useful in
developing a framework to challenge “orthodox theories.” It is a structured method for organising
data, a programme looking at anomalies research in the context of knowledge
management.
Because
'anomalous phenomena’ are here defined broadly to encompass “reliably
established phenomena that significantly challenge our world-view,” they extend
beyond what are generally conceived to include the paranormal and psi
phenomena. Rousseau gives as examples that
he would include but which fall outside psychical research/parapsychology:
“cryptozoology, UFOs, cold fusion, dark matter, the placebo effect, homeopathy,
ancient technology, ball lightning, etc.”
He contrasts these with puzzles that can be expected to be solved within
the orthodox framework, such as “schizophrenia, genetic defects and tumours.” The system would build an “anomalies catalogue”
which would define and classify these anomalies without presuming explanatory
models.
Within
psychical research, Rousseau posits a link between spontaneous and laboratory
findings. Traditionally the two have
been viewed as generally separate domains, but Rousseau sees spontaneous
phenomena as comprising, in aggregate, those phenomena that are studied in the
laboratory. The distinction, he argues,
is obscured by the way in which the term ‘anomalous phenomena’ is used to cover
both levels, the molecular and aggregated.
Spontaneous phenomena can be regarded as “synergistic systems” that can
be broken down into their components; if you can understand these elements, you
should be able to understand the range of larger-scale phenomena that they
constitute. This would not only
establish links between field and laboratory phenomena, but possibly also links
between seemingly disparate field phenomena (Rousseau gives the example of
dowsing and mental mediumship). The
implication is that we could determine the shape of a phenomenon by mixing the
sub-elements together in the correct proportions, rather like the ingredients
in a recipe. Rousseau’s hope is that his approach will reveal relationships between
anomalous data, and suggest further lines of research.
He
notes that unfortunately a problem is that at present we know as little about
how laboratory phenomena operate as we do field ones, necessitating a
phenomenological approach, describing effects “in order to avoid embedding
presumptions about mechanisms into our terminology.” There is the need for a classification system
that does not favour any particular conceptual framework: “An important feature of this system is that
in both the definition and the classification ... we refer only to observed or
inferred effects, and not to
(presumed) causes or mechanisms. This
makes the classification system robust against the theoretical development of
the paradigm models...” But an obvious
objection to this method is that if you are only considering effects, how can
you make a judgement on aetiology? There
may be surface similarities, but that does not mean that causes are related.
Also,
if you are trying to identify components at the molecular level, one cannot know
whether they are the same across phenomena at the macro level, or only
superficially similar. There is a
parallel with convergent evolution – simply because characteristics appear alike,
it does not necessarily mean that they are linked, such as erroneously assuming
a close relationship between bat and bird because they can both fly. Rousseau
proposes a classification system paralleling that used for diseases, i.e.
described in terms of symptoms. He talks
of “benchmarks” for normal behaviour.
However, if I have a temperature, it is easily established by reference
to my typical body heat output, but benchmarks for allegedly paranormal
occurrences are not so easily established.
Rousseau’s
object is to “include all reliably reported phenomena that would, if true,
embarrass our leading theories of how the world works.” But he does not tackle the complex issue of
how reliability can be determined, a significant weakness when assessing the
strength of cases. Examples of
apparently strong cases that turn out to be weak when re-analysed are many, including
the Chaffin Will Case, examined by Mary Roach in Six Feet Over, S. G. Soal, whose
work was held up to be of a high standard until SPR member Betty Markwick
examined the data (‘The Soal-Goldney Experiments with Basil Shackleton; New Evidence
of Data Manipulation’, in SPR Proceedings,
1978), even the Creery Sisters, who fooled the early SPR investigators, about which
Edmund Gurney had to issue a statement in the SPR’s Proceedings shortly before his death in 1888 (‘Note Relating to
Some of the Published Experiments in Thought-Transference’).
What
is more usual however, is a messy situation in which researchers produce
findings that are challenged by critics; free, increasingly acerbic, debate
ensues; and finally peters out without a clear resolution as the debate moves
on. Examples would be the 2011
presentiment research by Daryl J. Bem (‘Feeling the Future: Experimental
Evidence for Anomalous Retroactive Influences on Cognition and Affect’), and,
from the other side, the debate surrounding Richard Wiseman’s 1992 speculations
in the SPR’s Journal about how
Eusapia Palladino might have cheated during the 1908 Naples sittings (‘The
Feilding Report: A Reconsideration’). Rousseau
argues that “there will be differences of opinion between researchers as to
what constitutes ‘reliably established’ and ‘significantly challenges’ [sic]
but these are not by themselves impediments to this definition’s useful
application in research.” That is
optimistic. For this to work, there
would need to be an arbitration mechanism to adjudicate between possibly widely
diverging estimates by researchers who might or might not have an axe to grind.
Even
this would not be definitive, though. There
can be no final arbiter of reliability, of what presents a challenge for our
paradigm, and therefore should be included.
Defenders of a subject and their critics will always argue over
validity, and where you draw the line. Many
would argue that homeopathy, one of Rousseau’s examples, does not actually
challenge our world view at all because it can be adequately explained by the
placebo effect. There are harder
examples: How
would complex cases like Enfield or Scole be evaluated? What sort of
consensus could be reached on their veridicality? In order to not pre-judge, such a system
would need to be set with very liberal criteria, risking the introduction of a
lot of noise.
Both
experimental and anecdotal research can be disputed, as the examples above
indicate, but it is particularly easy for the critic to dismiss the latter as
mere anecdotes. The plural of these may
or may not be data, but either way, they possess lower evidential value compared
to controlled experiments, and assessing their value on a scale is far from an
exact science. Having read a large
selection of ‘ghost’ literature, I can attest that the stories exhibit wide variation
in degrees of plausibility. Witnesses
are not pure sources of information, they have motivations, secrets, agendas,
varying levels of fantasy proneness, leaving aside the basic difficulties of
eyewitness testimony. Investigators ask
leading questions, perhaps jazz things up.
These factors can all be assessed for reliability in the eyes of the
evaluator, but we have to be aware of the dangers of unknown levels of distortion.
Even
if the reliability issue is somehow overcome, there are problems in building a
hierarchy of elements which can be aggregated.
The assumption is that these elements are additive and can be combined
to form a larger anomaly. As an example
of this additive view of phenomena, Rousseau argues that a poltergeist might be
seen in terms of a range of more “fundamental” anomalies, such as “PK
[psychokinesis], apports, thermodynamic anomalies, acoustic anomalies...”
etc. However, this does not take into
account emergent properties; the whole might be greater, and rather different,
than the sum of its parts.
The
reference to acoustic anomalies is an interesting one because much has been
made in recent years of an analysis that Barrie G. Colvin made of a range of
recordings of raps collected at alleged poltergeist sites, reported in the SPR Journal (‘The Acoustic Properties of
Unexplained Rapping Sounds’, 2010), but the effects have been replicated by C. J. Romer using clearly non-paranormal means,
namely banging around his house, as detailed in his Polterwotsit blog. Romer adds that this is not necessarily to
say that Colvin’s raps were not paranormal in origin, only that they can be
replicated by non-paranormal means.
Colvin’s
recordings are open to interpretation as the raps themselves were
ephemeral. Rousseau distinguishes
between transient and non-transient effects.
The former leave no lasting trace, such as seeing a ghost. A non-transient effect would be one you can
examine at leisure. Rousseau’s examples
of this are “thoughtography and metal objects deformed by PK.” These are definitely non-transient, in the
sense that one can examine an artefact, but there is still an obvious problem
for Rousseau’s taxonomy, working out what is a paranormal object and what is
not, if you cannot link the surface effects (symptoms) to unambiguous causes. It may be non-transient, but you don’t know
if it has a paranormal origin. Perhaps
it is unfair to expect any such a scheme to be able to make this determination,
but then Rousseau seems to be making claims on which his approach cannot
deliver.
The
April 2002 SPR Study Day
To
coincide with the Journal article, Rousseau
elaborated on these ideas at an SPR study day entitled ‘Making the Evidence
Count’, chaired by Julie Rousseau. A
report on the event was written by Nicola Holt (Paranormal Review, No. 26, April 2003). David Rousseau spoke of a scoring system
which would, in Holt’s words, “enumerate each case study, capturing information
about the significance of each case, an indication of its value and
quality.” Rousseau presented ten
criteria, each weighted from 1 to 10, giving a total score out of 100. As far as I am aware Rousseau has not issued
his own list so it is worth quoting the ten in full:
1 Is this case a clear challenge to
orthodoxy – does this case reflect an anomaly?
2 Witness or researcher credibility – is
their report reliable (e.g., is there a vested interest in a particular outcome)?
3 Depth of evidence, e.g. rich and
detailed reporting, immediacy and accuracy of reporting, good research and
‘documentation’.
4 Corroboration – multiple witnesses on
multiple occasions.
5 Corroboration – repetition of physical
anomalies or physical records/evidence.
6 Consistency – shares features with
other cases of the same category.
7 Test of time – the case has stood
debunking.
8 Test of time – the case has attracted
no criticism due to its strengths.
9 Correlation – the case correlates with
an independent objective variable, e.g. ganzfeld success and local sidereal
time.
10 Predictability/verifiability –
repeatability criteria.
Other
speakers at the study day were asked to choose strong cases to discuss, in
order to see how the criteria would work.
I was present in the audience, and remember wondering how they hoped to
get agreement between researchers on scoring these criteria, which in any case are
not orthogonal. Clearly, according to
the Paranormal Review report, others
also raised concerns about the practicalities, and problems finding consensus
when there were “widely different viewpoints in the field”, as Holt worded it (an
understatement; put two psychical researchers together and you will more than
likely get three opinions). Holt’s
conclusion was that “While evidence of any kind may never lead to irrefutable
‘proof’ of anything, the anomalies catalogue would at least enable researchers
to form opinions based on carefully classified and easily available
information, thereby assisting in the construction of theories and models ...
based on the ‘best available evidence’.”
Giving
researchers the tools to construct theories is praiseworthy, but as an
indication of the difficulties presented by the proposed scoring system, take
the example Mary Rose Barrington gave at the study day: This was a case (P. 384) from 1882 reported
in the SPR’s Proceedings, Volume 5,
1888, in a paper by Eleanor Sidgwick, ‘On the Evidence for Premonitions’. As Holt recounts it,
“The case she [Barrington]
finds most compelling is a spontaneous case from the Sidgwick collection of
1882, with a high 'randomness factor', called the 'Schweitzer case' or 'the
Henry Irving case'. On the 18th July 1882, Mrs Schweitzer dreamt that her son,
Fred, died, falling over a cliff. In the dream he was in the company of another
man, whose name she enquired, he replied 'Henry Irving'. In waking life, Mrs
Schweitzer anxiously sent a message about the dream to her son, who was on a
business trip in the Midlands, asking him to come home as soon as possible.
Fred replied that he was fine. However, rather than going home immediately, he
went to the coastal town of Scarborough. He was keen to go riding in the Forge
valley and was accompanied by a new acquaintance he met there. Unfortunately,
Fred fell from his horse, hit his head on a rock and died instantly. Later, Mrs
Schweitzer met the man who had been with her son; she asked if his name was
Henry, indeed it was, Henry Deverell. She told him about her dream, and he said
that when he did amateur acting he was known as Henry Irving, Junior. Mary Rose
argued that this is a very strong case (awarding it 87 points). It was well
documented, with the original notes available and good first-hand evidence from
all the parties, in addition the 'Henry Irving precognition' is exceptionally
'random' or 'improbable'.”
That
is a score of 87%, which is impressive. But another scorer may find it less so, and
award a lower mark based on precisely the same evidence. Mrs Schweizer (not Schweitzer) had her dream,
which did not correspond in detail to the eventual accident, on 18 July 1882; the
accident took place on 26 July and was reported in the York Herald, 28 July; but Mrs Schweizer only wrote to the SPR on 28
October 1882, and the SPR did not follow the case up until April 1888. Interestingly, Holt not only misspells Mrs
Schweizer’s name, but in the original letter, the acquaintance tells Mrs
Schweizer that he is introduced at private theatricals as Henry Irvin, not Irving. Fred did not die instantly, but three hours
after his accident. It is so easy to get
details wrong, and these were easily checkable; how much more problematic is
eyewitness testimony, which cannot be checked.
Yes,
the case is strengthened by Mrs Schweizer meeting “Henry Irvin, jun.”, which
apparently accorded with her dream.
However, she says that she only recalled her dream on meeting Mr
Deverell, and she could easily have heard the name Henry as the name of her
son’s companion when she was told the details of Fred’s accident, and forgotten
it in her grief. Even more, surely the
case is weakened by the length of time, well over three months, between having
the dream and recording it, with an intensely traumatic event in between, during
which many details could have been invented, omitted or rearranged in her
memory. Mrs Schweizer stated that Mr
Deverell and her son had signed an account “substantially the same” as that in
her letter, but we are not told when this happened, what the differences with
the letter were, or whether anybody at the SPR actually saw it. Sadly Mr Deverell could not be asked for his
recollections in 1888 as he had drowned in 1883, though he could not have vouched
for the accuracy of the dream as he was only told about it after Fred’s death. Mrs Schweizer’s sons were unlikely to
contradict their mother.
Given
these issues, eighty-seven seems a rather high score, and might be seen to
reflect the way in which the scorer is predisposed to view the evidence. Another scorer might consider this not to be
a strong case (I tried scoring it myself and gave it 51%, and I thought I was
being generous). The idea of scoring
anomalies sounds fine in theory, but in practice tells us as much about the
scorer as it does about the case being scored because scoring cannot be
calibrated. Nor are we told what counts
as a significance level. Presumably a
case would have to reach some threshold in order to count as a strong case, but
there is no indication what it would be, or how exactly how set. Further, once you have done your scoring, how
exactly does that convince a sceptic?
A
Database of White Crows
Despite
the mixed feedback at the 2002 study day, in 2005 Rousseau “launched the Kuhnexus CaseBase Project, a collaborative project to
establish a database of the best cases of paradigm-challenging phenomena.” (The
reference is on the website of another organisation founded by Rousseau, the
Centre for Systems Philosophy, of which he is Director, retrieved 14 March 2013.) At the same time, he published an article in Paranormal Review (no. 34, April 2005),
‘Collecting Cases for a Database of White Crows’. The 2009 SPR website page quoted above is an
abbreviated version of the start of this article, but here Rousseau goes into
more detail about what a case is, what constitutes an anomaly, what kind of
cases the project team are looking for, and how the reader might help. Cases are defined as “a historical narrative
that rests on records that authenticate it to some degree...”, and he requests
readers to submit those cases they consider to be most significant.
The
criteria have grown to fifteen, but they are not listed, and there is no
evidence that fifteen would provide any more objectivity than ten would, nor
that they would allow a white crow to emerge.
The article’s title is drawn from William James: essentially, you only
need one white crow to disprove the statement that “all crows are black.” James’s white crow was mental medium Mrs
Piper, but while she has had many champions, most recently Michael Tymn, who
has written Resurrecting Leonora Piper:
How Science Discovered the Afterlife (2013), it is unlikely that even an
entire database full of examples as good as Mrs Piper would have much impact in
terms of paradigm change on mainstream science.
It is perhaps instructive that Rousseau, when referring to best cases,
puts “best” in inverted commas, as if himself unsure of their status. He does exhort the SPR membership to get
involved supplying cases so that the team can select the best ones, but curiously
the project website shown at the end of his article is that of C-Far, indicating
a blurring of ownership between the SPR and Rousseau’s own organisations.
Kuhnexus
CaseBase and Nigel Buckmaster
The
patient reader may be wondering why this project, ambitious in scope but
unlikely to succeed, is still of interest.
The reason is because it is now potentially of much greater scope than
suggested in Rousseau’s articles. There
have been a number of references in previous SPR Annual Reports to Kuhnexus
CaseBase, in David Rousseau’s Research Activities Committee (RAC) reports
(Rousseau chairs the RAC). In the latest
Annual Report (covering October 2011 to September 2012, released in March 2013),
he has much more on the subject, taking up almost half his RAC space:
“Kuhnexus CaseBase: We [i.e. the
RAC] continue to support this project, which is aimed at collating the best
cases in every class of anomalous phenomena relevant to psychical research. The
project team ... continue to develop the project framework and collect relevant
cases, and anticipate that the collection will one day be made available as an
on-line resource...
“As reported last year, a generous bequest towards
this project has been made by the late Mr. Nigel Buckmaster ... The funded
project will be a significant undertaking, but given the preparatory work
already done is it is likely to gain momentum quickly ... It is anticipated
that the research resources established under this project will bring new
momentum to psychical research and establish psychical research’s significance
to a wide range of important open issues in the orthodox worldview.”
David
Rousseau’s statement on the Financial Position in the 2011-12 Accounts (he is
also the SPR’s Hon. Treasurer) mentions a total of £600,000 in the Buckmaster bequest
(p.13), so it can be expected that a generous portion of the legacy might be
devoted to the CaseBase project; indeed, no other purpose for the disposal of
the money is mentioned. If a substantial
sum is going to be spent on such an idea, there needs to be a clear
understanding beforehand about how the project might work in practice, and
whether Mr Buckmaster’s money will be effectively spent (it is worth pointing
out that the same Annual Report states that during 2011-12 the SPR awarded a
mere five grants for research, totalling £12,670). So Rousseau’s various papers are of more than
academic interest, they have practical implications.
While
there are issues with some of his ideas, others could easily be
implemented. A database of Kuhnia would
be an improvement, in terms of accessibility and searchability, on an
enterprise like Bill Corliss’s Sourcebook
Project, though it would be a long time before it was anything like as
comprehensive. The online library run by
Lexscien (an entity created by C-Far) has a range of publications, the SPR’s Proceedings and Journal, its magazines Psi
Researcher and Paranormal Review,
as well as publications issued by other organisations. This could easily be expanded to make
hitherto obscure material accessible (I have myself suggested adding the run of
the SPR’s Myers Memorial Lectures,
issued as pamphlets, to the database), plus perhaps a selection of unpublished
cases in the archives and any unpublished supporting documentation for those
that have been published. Rousseau’s
2005 Paranormal Review article states
that most cases assessed will already have been published, so the novelty would
be ease of access, plus the scoring system and classification to find
commonalities, rather than the publication of new cases.
The
Lexscien search facilities could be improved to assist searches across a broad
range of data, and perhaps cases tagged in order to facilitate the hunt for the
type of cross-phenomenon feature discussed in Rousseau’s 2002 paper. This could be a project to involve the SPR membership
in a Wikipedia-style exercise, and as Wikipedia allows discussion of its
content by contributors, so could the Lexscien pages. The ten or fifteen criteria could be used as
a way of filtering out the clearly weak cases which have no supporting evidence,
and new cases could be invited on the same basis, increasing the SPR’s archive
in the process. Such an approach would
cost only a miniscule fraction of £600,000, leaving the bulk available to
support actual research.
Anything
more elaborate, such as the scoring exercise, or finding similarities that may
or may not be spurious, runs the risk of using resources on something no more reliable than any previous case
collection, and with as much chance of changing the current paradigm. A paradigm shift happens, Kuhn tells us, when
the current one produces anomalies that can no longer be ignored. Even if a superb quality-controlled collection
is gathered together, is this really going to change anyone’s view, or will
those who are not convinced carry on ignoring the damned data? This may seem unduly pessimistic, but we have
good evidence gathered over the last 130 years that it will take a lot more
than a collection of Kuhnia, however extensive and efficiently collated, to
trigger a paradigm shift.