This article was a spin-off from a final year project I undertook when taking a psychology degree at Birkbeck College, University of London, which I completed in 1992, so it dates from around that time. I sent it to Kevin McClure's small magazine The Wild Places but it was not used. Kevin did take a related article, on 'UFO Witnesses and Fantasy Proneness', published in 1993. This one is dated now, and rather thin on deatail, but still worthy of preservation.
GROUP POLARISATION AND UFOs
UFO sightings occur under a variety of conditions, often unfavourable to a definitive conclusion as to their nature (for example when seeing lights in the sky), so that in effect identification represents a probability judgment. It is difficult to estimate how many sightings can be attributed to natural phenomena, misperception, hallucination, fraud etc., and thus how many might have a veridical basis. The usual figure given is that 90-95% of sightings can be explained by psychological factors, aircraft, or meteorological/astronomical misidentifications.
There has long been an acknowledgement in the literature that issues of eyewitness testimony are of significance to the understanding of a UFO sighting. Thus witnesses' estimates of speed, distance and time can all be suspect, and reports can be 'cleaned up' retrospectively in order to fit in with prior belief structures. The investigator's role in possibly eliciting spurious detail has also been examined. There are other areas of psychology which have been brought to bear less frequently, but which could prove useful in interpreting reports of sightings.
It might be assumed that multiple witnesses are going to be more accurate than an individual, as they would have an opportunity to discuss what they had seen and thus pool all available information. It does seem likely that percipients are mutually influential. Zimmer found a correlation between a subject having had a sighting of a UFO, and knowing somebody else who had had a sighting, though not necessarily the same one. She puts forward two possibilities to account for this. The first is that there is a social network of witnesses who would tend to come together as a result of sightings; the second is that knowing someone who has had an experience increases one's own confidence that a stimulus really was a UFO. Networks certainly exist for those who claim to have had abduction experiences, but Zimmer's second hypothesis would seem to be more plausible for the bulk of low-definition sightings.
Randles & Warrington have noted that the incidence of UFO reports is in inverse proportion to a decrease in definition of the object sighted. In the same vein, Hilton & von Hippel argue that if a behaviour is ambiguous in the sense that it can fall into more than one category, the category label assigned to it would have a distorting effect on the observer's judgment; assigning the label exaggerates the difference between the behaviour in question and behaviours in other categories which might actually be very similar. By analogy, UFOs can be characterised as stereotypical of ambiguous aerial phenomena, so as a sighting increases in ambiguity, there should be an increased tendency to contrast it to the population of aerial phenomena, and label it a UFO rather than, say, an aeroplane.
A parallel to the examination of low-level sightings, with an emphasis on the difficulty in benchmarking the stimulus against a known frame of reference, can be seen in work carried out on the autokinetic effect. In this set-up, the subject looks at a point of light in a dark room. With no context within which to be judged, the light will appear to move about erratically. After a number of trials, the light will still appear to wander, but within narrowly confined limits. Subjects assessing the 'movement' of the light on their own will develop their own, idiosyncratic, description.
Sherif found that if a stooge made a firm declaration of what the limits were, the naive subject would tend to agree. This agreement would form the group norm. The norm is not necessarily a convergence towards the mean of a set of judgments – the consistency of one member can have a disproportionate influence. The emergence of a consensus thus represents a rational response to uncertain conditions. The autokinetic effect can be seen as similar to a low-definition UFO sighting in that both represent a probabilistic response, and that where more than one person is present, the decision made need not be some kind of average response, cancelling out extreme opinions so that a bland conclusion is reached.
'Group polarisation' is another concept which has become popular in social psychology in recent years. It has been defined by Hogg & Abrams as:
"the tendency for groups to make decisions which are more extreme than individuals in the direction initially favoured by the group."
The paradigm for examining its operation is analogous to that employed in examining the autokinetic effect. In both, an individual makes a judgment in isolation and then is exposed to group influence. The post-decision consensus is usually more extreme than the mean of individual pre-test responses. These shifts are essentially relativistic, concerning cultural norms, ie what is considered normative in a particular society.
Turner introduced a concept called "Referent Informational Influence", or RII, as a model to explain how polarisation occurs. It involves self-categorisation caused by group membership becoming psychologically salient, and which in turn produces stereotypical behaviour conforming to the perceived group norm. The in-group norm is the one which is best perceived to minimise intragroup yet maximise intergroup differences. This maximisation leads to a shift of the group mean away from the outgroup (which is why it is not merely the aggregate of the members' decisions).
Instead of an approach based on the individual characteristics of the participants, the RII emphasis is on the way in which an individual categorises her- or himself as a group member, with both social and physical reality constructed through a social consensus. Uncertainty arises as a result of disagreement with those one expects to be able to agree with, which is the case with other in-group members, those with whom one feels an affinity. No uncertainty will arise from disagreement with those whom expects to disagree. In an uncertain situation, the process of influence is able to take place, even in the absence of group pressure to conform. The corollary is that information is more influential when it has come from consistent in-group members than from other sources.
How does this apply to the interpretation of a stimulus as a UFO? Often more than one witness is present at a UFO sighting, and the decision reached could be influenced by the mechanism which causes group polarisation. A decision could of course be made either way, leading an initially sceptical person to conclude that a UFO had been sighted (risky shift), or a person who had thought that a UFO had been seen that there was a more ordinary explanation (cautious shift). Both are polarised decisions, but in opposite directions.
It could be argued that the group would be likelier to make a radical decision than an individual, and thus conclude that a UFO sighting had occurred. This is because of the finding that risky shifts tend to occur when the stakes are low, and a cautious shift when they are high (for example concerning somebody's health or happiness). With UFO sightings, apart from the possibility of ridicule, stakes would be low.
There would thus be a prediction that individuals in a group would be inclined to interpret an anomalous aerial object (defined as possessing a high degree of ambiguity) as a UFO in preference to a natural phenomenon. It should be noted that the prediction only covers sightings of stimuli which could be interpreted as UFOs, and does not cover abductions, which would be high-definition events, and for which other psychological mechanisms, such as fantasy proneness, might operate. Also, no conclusion as to the reality or otherwise of UFOs need be arrived at for an investigator to acknowledge that polarisation can occur.
The effect that the presence of another person and possibly group membership may have in the possible conclusion reached is dramatically shown by a case quoted by Randles & Warrington:
"With a friend (the witness) watched a strange object for half an hour. It changed no fewer than six times during this period. Each change followed a discussion between the witnesses when they said, "Oh, the experts will say 'That's a so-and-so'." The object promptly changed so that it was decidedly not reminiscent of whatever each particular 'so-and-so' was!"
References
Hilton, J.L. & von Hippel, W. (1990). The Role of Consistency in the Judgment of Stereotype-Relevant Behaviours. Personality and Social Psychology,16, 430-448.
Hogg, M.A. & Abrams, D. (1988). Social Identifications. Routledge.
Randles, J. & Warrington, P. (1979). UFOs: A British Viewpoint. Robert Hale Ltd.
Sherif, M. (1935). An Experimental Study of Stereotypes. Journal of Abnormal Social Psychology, 29, 371-375.
Turner, J.C., Wetherall, M.S., & Hogg, M.A. (1989). Referent Informational Influence and Group Polarisation. British Journal of Social Psychology, 28, 135-147.
Zimmer, T.A. (1984). Social Psychological Correlates of Possible UFO Sightings. Journal of Social Psychology, 123, 199-206.
Monday, 8 February 2010
Friday, 5 February 2010
Lecture report - Models of the Mind
This was a lecture report written in 1992 for the Psi Researcher (now known as the Paranormal Review), the magazine of the Society for Psychical Research. For some reason it wasn't used because the report that appeared was done by Rosemary Dinnage (Psi Researcher No. 6, p.18). There must have been some confusion because I wrote the report for the lecture the week before, given by Colin Wilson. Eighteen years late, but here is my report on Charles Tart's lecture in which he talks about this newfangled virtual reality thing. The concluding reference to Arthur Ellison and reality as a mental construct was a joke because Arthur was a famous philosophical idealist.
Models of the Mind
An extra lecture had been squeezed into the programme to take advantage of Charles Tart's visit to Europe. On 26 June 1992 he addressed the Society on the subject of models of the mind, paying particular attention to the opportunities offered by the nascent technology of Virtual Reality.
Dr Tart began, though, on an autobiographical note, outlining the religious crisis he had had experienced as a teenager. He discovered in psychical research a critical approach which he found congenial. Later he coined the term "Transpersonal Psychology" as a method of understanding the way the mind works. Designed to go beyond 'ordinary' psychology, being almost synonymous with spirituality, it was distinct from religion, which Dr Tart categorised as pertaining to a social system. Instead it related more to feelings people have of something greater than themselves, such as near death and peak experiences.
The transpersonal approach requires the use of psychical research data, which lays it open to charges by philosophical monists of not being scientific. These take a reductionist approach to the mind-body problem, but it could be argued against them that such an approach can never give an adequate account. Models of mind are usually based on technologies available at the time, for example the Freudian hydraulic approach, and later metaphors based on the telephone and then the digital computer. Computer-generated Virtual Reality is the latest such metaphor, and can be used to explore mind-body issues.
In understanding who one is, it is possible to infer identity from the fact that one can interact with one's body, and that it is familiar and capable of being controlled. This is "Mind Embodied" (or ME! - the exclamation mark to acknowledge how precious it is). This can be termed the "Ecological Self", as it has evolved to perform a self-preserving function. It is a state, however, which one can change, for example in the out-of-body experience (OBE). A kind of OBE is "Telepresence", and Dr Tart described a robot which mimics the actions of its operator so faithfully that a human can become identified with the machine to the extent that seeing him/herself on a TV monitor can seem like watching a stranger.
A further step is Virtual Reality, a fictional, computerised world which nonetheless can seem real. The subject wears a helmet fitted with a TV screen filling the entire visual field, and with a sensor monitoring the person's position; the scene on the screen will move according to the head's movements, giving the illusion that it is the wearer who is moving. In addition, the user wears a "data glove" covered in fibre optics, also with a position sensor (suits with sensors all over them to track the whole body's actions are becoming increasingly common). Thus equipped, a reality is generated by computer which is "virtual" in the sense that it is 'unreal', yet for the person immersed in it, it becomes reality, to the extent that one feels that one can fly - the laws of this environment take over from the real world.
This approach can provide support for a dualistic model, and to this end Dr Tart distinguished two senses of virtual reality, computer-generated and biological-psychological. We live in the second, it seems real and we identify with it, but it is still virtual in that it is not a complete picture. It is composed of two separate regions, the transpersonal and the physical, with psi processes mediating between the two. In this way mind influences the body by means of auto-PK, and can be extended to include clairvoyance and telepathy. These processes may seem unusual, but they are part of ordinary life.
Computer-generated virtual reality adds another dimension to the model. The virtual reality paraphernalia acts as a bridge between the physical world and the virtual world, and in which ME! is taken to a higher order, "Mind Embodied embodied". This provides a new perspective on the biological-psychological realm in which various states of consciousness can be modelled, and offers a potential tool for psychical research.
The discussion kicked off with a reference to the film "Lawnmower Man", and the possibility that the subject of virtual reality might disappear under a mountain of hype. Dr Tart defended its use in modelling consciousness. Little work has been done by psychologists, having mainly been the province of engineers, and consequently its potential has been underutilised. For example, it has been found that users sometimes have lucid dreams afterwards, and Dr Tart agreed that it might be possible that two individuals sharing the same virtual reality could develop telepathy, due to the way in which it breaks through everyday inhibitions. It could even be programmed to emulate a spiritual experience, and thus provide a link with the transpersonal.
Another criticism was that human-machine interaction could be pathological, producing couch potatoes rather than an evolutionary leap. Dr Tart responded that the technology was neutral, and could be used for good or ill. On the issue of second-order modelling, it was acknowledged that psychical research models might themselves be modelled, but this raised the problem of which models should be chosen. In summary, Dr Tart suggested that Eastern mysticism does not take 'reality' seriously. Similarly, an idealist might argue that reality itself is constructed, and is therefore a virtual reality - a view with which the proceedings' chairman, Professor Ellison, heartily concurred.
An extra lecture had been squeezed into the programme to take advantage of Charles Tart's visit to Europe. On 26 June 1992 he addressed the Society on the subject of models of the mind, paying particular attention to the opportunities offered by the nascent technology of Virtual Reality.
Dr Tart began, though, on an autobiographical note, outlining the religious crisis he had had experienced as a teenager. He discovered in psychical research a critical approach which he found congenial. Later he coined the term "Transpersonal Psychology" as a method of understanding the way the mind works. Designed to go beyond 'ordinary' psychology, being almost synonymous with spirituality, it was distinct from religion, which Dr Tart categorised as pertaining to a social system. Instead it related more to feelings people have of something greater than themselves, such as near death and peak experiences.
The transpersonal approach requires the use of psychical research data, which lays it open to charges by philosophical monists of not being scientific. These take a reductionist approach to the mind-body problem, but it could be argued against them that such an approach can never give an adequate account. Models of mind are usually based on technologies available at the time, for example the Freudian hydraulic approach, and later metaphors based on the telephone and then the digital computer. Computer-generated Virtual Reality is the latest such metaphor, and can be used to explore mind-body issues.
In understanding who one is, it is possible to infer identity from the fact that one can interact with one's body, and that it is familiar and capable of being controlled. This is "Mind Embodied" (or ME! - the exclamation mark to acknowledge how precious it is). This can be termed the "Ecological Self", as it has evolved to perform a self-preserving function. It is a state, however, which one can change, for example in the out-of-body experience (OBE). A kind of OBE is "Telepresence", and Dr Tart described a robot which mimics the actions of its operator so faithfully that a human can become identified with the machine to the extent that seeing him/herself on a TV monitor can seem like watching a stranger.
A further step is Virtual Reality, a fictional, computerised world which nonetheless can seem real. The subject wears a helmet fitted with a TV screen filling the entire visual field, and with a sensor monitoring the person's position; the scene on the screen will move according to the head's movements, giving the illusion that it is the wearer who is moving. In addition, the user wears a "data glove" covered in fibre optics, also with a position sensor (suits with sensors all over them to track the whole body's actions are becoming increasingly common). Thus equipped, a reality is generated by computer which is "virtual" in the sense that it is 'unreal', yet for the person immersed in it, it becomes reality, to the extent that one feels that one can fly - the laws of this environment take over from the real world.
This approach can provide support for a dualistic model, and to this end Dr Tart distinguished two senses of virtual reality, computer-generated and biological-psychological. We live in the second, it seems real and we identify with it, but it is still virtual in that it is not a complete picture. It is composed of two separate regions, the transpersonal and the physical, with psi processes mediating between the two. In this way mind influences the body by means of auto-PK, and can be extended to include clairvoyance and telepathy. These processes may seem unusual, but they are part of ordinary life.
Computer-generated virtual reality adds another dimension to the model. The virtual reality paraphernalia acts as a bridge between the physical world and the virtual world, and in which ME! is taken to a higher order, "Mind Embodied embodied". This provides a new perspective on the biological-psychological realm in which various states of consciousness can be modelled, and offers a potential tool for psychical research.
The discussion kicked off with a reference to the film "Lawnmower Man", and the possibility that the subject of virtual reality might disappear under a mountain of hype. Dr Tart defended its use in modelling consciousness. Little work has been done by psychologists, having mainly been the province of engineers, and consequently its potential has been underutilised. For example, it has been found that users sometimes have lucid dreams afterwards, and Dr Tart agreed that it might be possible that two individuals sharing the same virtual reality could develop telepathy, due to the way in which it breaks through everyday inhibitions. It could even be programmed to emulate a spiritual experience, and thus provide a link with the transpersonal.
Another criticism was that human-machine interaction could be pathological, producing couch potatoes rather than an evolutionary leap. Dr Tart responded that the technology was neutral, and could be used for good or ill. On the issue of second-order modelling, it was acknowledged that psychical research models might themselves be modelled, but this raised the problem of which models should be chosen. In summary, Dr Tart suggested that Eastern mysticism does not take 'reality' seriously. Similarly, an idealist might argue that reality itself is constructed, and is therefore a virtual reality - a view with which the proceedings' chairman, Professor Ellison, heartily concurred.
An Evening of Clairvoyance in Peckham
Another article found on a floppy disk, dating from 1990. This would have been sent to the Skeptic but was rejected, possibly because my account of a dull evening in the tacky surroundings of the North Peckham Civic Centre was uninteresting, or because it was too bitchy and might cause problems for the magazine even though I did not identify the guilty. So much for fearless crusading journalism. A note for younger readers: this was the point at which the 01dialling code for the whole of London was being replaced by 071 and 081, and British Telecom had mounted a hugely expensive campaign to remind us which places would be in which dialling code areas. The reference to Doris is a nice pun as "the other side" is actually referring to the 071 area as well as to the medium Doris Stokes. Despite the comment about my rubbish phone service at home, I worked for British Telecom at the time. For some reason I did not include a title when I sent this off and have added one now. Otherwise it appears as written twenty years ago.
An Evening of Clairvoyance in Peckham
One evening in April 1990 I went along to the North Peckham Civic Centre in the Old Kent Road, South London, to witness a demonstration of "clairvoyance" and hypnotic regression. Only about thirty people turned up, although the hall we were in had a capacity of several hundred. The organisers were clearly disappointed at the meagre turnout, but at £4.50 each, the citizens of South London obviously decided that they had better things to spend their money on. There were only three men present, excluding the organisers, and very few people over about thirty-five.
First of all we had an evening-suited hypnotist complete with booming microphone who looked as if he was about to break into "My Way", and who took us all back to past lives. I thought he was a hero, battling with New Age tapes which refused to function (he was reduced to Pink Floyd) and trying to get results relaxing the audience in the most uncomfortable chairs in the history of regression.
He began the session by asking who believed in reincarnation, and these people he moved to the front of the hall. After attempting to induce a trance in the entire audience, he asked a number of these believers which periods they had gone back to and what they had seen. The second part of his act consisted in taking several of them, apparently chosen according to their level of suggestibility, on to the stage. There he hypnotised them again and they continued their stories. These were very dull, except for one which had a distinct Mills and Boon air about it.
There was a long interval, during which time we were able to peruse a stall selling paraphernalia (Tarot decks, books, New Age music, crystals, earrings...). Trade was modest. After more adventures with the tapes, we were introduced to two famous clairvoyants, although famous where we were not told.
The man spoke so quickly and obscurely that it was difficult to work out what he was saying, and his victims would have found it difficult to express anything other than yes or puzzlement, the sole responses displayed. His speed allowed any cues which fell on stony ground – we never did find out who Arthur was – to be skated over and forgotten in the rush. He also displayed a certain interest in ladies' underclothing.
His companion was at least comprehensible, although more blatant in her fishing. This was not the only technique in her armoury, however. It was a fair bet that the black woman would have friends or relatives overseas, and that the woman in her sixties would have her grandparents in Spirit. Other techniques were: If it did not apply to you it applied to your next door neighbour in the audience; if it did not apply to either of you it applied to somebody in your family, or friends, or friends' families; if it had not happened already, "hold on to it" because it will happen in the future.
I found it illuminating to see how many of the statements made about the subject under scrutiny applied to me. For example, who had a heart problem and who had diabetes (my mother). Who had a back problem (me, and about half the population). Who had a problem with their 'phone service (ditto, but more than half the population). Who was having a problem with the buttons on their video (yes, me, but an interesting one because at first glance it would not seem a common complaint. Perhaps the ability of a stage medium lies in being able to spot social trends). Most of the names also had relevance to me, if you included every person I had ever known reasonably well in my life. Anniversaries? Counting family, there is one every month, and most people are in the same position.
After a closing prayer we were released back to reality. Outside, it was amusing to see a hoarding directly across the road advertising the new British Telecom London code changes. "081 for Doris in Stoke Newington" it proclaims, "if you're calling from the other side". That was about as close to the Other Side as I managed to get that evening.
Tom Ruffles
Tom Ruffles is a Market Analyst living in London
An Evening of Clairvoyance in Peckham
One evening in April 1990 I went along to the North Peckham Civic Centre in the Old Kent Road, South London, to witness a demonstration of "clairvoyance" and hypnotic regression. Only about thirty people turned up, although the hall we were in had a capacity of several hundred. The organisers were clearly disappointed at the meagre turnout, but at £4.50 each, the citizens of South London obviously decided that they had better things to spend their money on. There were only three men present, excluding the organisers, and very few people over about thirty-five.
First of all we had an evening-suited hypnotist complete with booming microphone who looked as if he was about to break into "My Way", and who took us all back to past lives. I thought he was a hero, battling with New Age tapes which refused to function (he was reduced to Pink Floyd) and trying to get results relaxing the audience in the most uncomfortable chairs in the history of regression.
He began the session by asking who believed in reincarnation, and these people he moved to the front of the hall. After attempting to induce a trance in the entire audience, he asked a number of these believers which periods they had gone back to and what they had seen. The second part of his act consisted in taking several of them, apparently chosen according to their level of suggestibility, on to the stage. There he hypnotised them again and they continued their stories. These were very dull, except for one which had a distinct Mills and Boon air about it.
There was a long interval, during which time we were able to peruse a stall selling paraphernalia (Tarot decks, books, New Age music, crystals, earrings...). Trade was modest. After more adventures with the tapes, we were introduced to two famous clairvoyants, although famous where we were not told.
The man spoke so quickly and obscurely that it was difficult to work out what he was saying, and his victims would have found it difficult to express anything other than yes or puzzlement, the sole responses displayed. His speed allowed any cues which fell on stony ground – we never did find out who Arthur was – to be skated over and forgotten in the rush. He also displayed a certain interest in ladies' underclothing.
His companion was at least comprehensible, although more blatant in her fishing. This was not the only technique in her armoury, however. It was a fair bet that the black woman would have friends or relatives overseas, and that the woman in her sixties would have her grandparents in Spirit. Other techniques were: If it did not apply to you it applied to your next door neighbour in the audience; if it did not apply to either of you it applied to somebody in your family, or friends, or friends' families; if it had not happened already, "hold on to it" because it will happen in the future.
I found it illuminating to see how many of the statements made about the subject under scrutiny applied to me. For example, who had a heart problem and who had diabetes (my mother). Who had a back problem (me, and about half the population). Who had a problem with their 'phone service (ditto, but more than half the population). Who was having a problem with the buttons on their video (yes, me, but an interesting one because at first glance it would not seem a common complaint. Perhaps the ability of a stage medium lies in being able to spot social trends). Most of the names also had relevance to me, if you included every person I had ever known reasonably well in my life. Anniversaries? Counting family, there is one every month, and most people are in the same position.
After a closing prayer we were released back to reality. Outside, it was amusing to see a hoarding directly across the road advertising the new British Telecom London code changes. "081 for Doris in Stoke Newington" it proclaims, "if you're calling from the other side". That was about as close to the Other Side as I managed to get that evening.
Tom Ruffles
Tom Ruffles is a Market Analyst living in London
Skepticism - 1895 Style
I found the following article on a floppy disk. It was probably written for the Skeptic magazine and either not sent or (more likely) not wanted. The newspaper from which I drew the story would have been in the Harry Price Library, which I used to frequent when the late Alan Wesencraft was in charge there. Trusted readers were allowed to use the HPL unsupervised, which enabled much happy browsing. Wonderful times. Unfortunately I don't know when I wrote this as all of the files on the disk (which were written using WordStar) are dated 1 January 1980. It was probably about the same time as my 1992 article on 'The Fasting Woman of Tutbury', which was accepted by the Skeptic.
SKEPTICISM - 1895 STYLE
Skepticism is nothing new, and an amusing newspaper report from the end of the nineteenth century describes how one reporter challenged a medium - at peril of his life.
The front page of an American paper, The Herald, for 22 July1895, carried an article by journalist Harry A Warren. The previous day he had attended the annual camp meeting of the Southern Californian spiritualists' association which was being held at Santa Monica. He claimed that he had borne no prior feelings of animosity towards the subject, and had been instructed to give a fair and impartial account of the proceedings.
These began with a flag-raising ceremony and patriotic songs, after which the association's president gave an uplifting speech. He was followed by more speakers, one of whom acknowledged that there was much fraud in spiritualism. Then Dr Louis Schlesinger (a well-known medium of the period and publisher of the spiritualist newspaper Carrier Dove, though the report consistently misspells his name as "Schlessinger") was introduced to the audience, around whom succeeding events revolve.
Some biographical details for Dr Schlesinger are given. He was born in Liverpool in 1832, and had emigrated to the US at the age of 16. He was Jewish until middle age, when he became a spiritualist. He was a wealthy businessman (the implication being that he was not in mediumship for the money). Harry Warren had met him before, and Dr Schlesinger had expressed the desire to give him a personal demonstration.
The medium said that his role was to substantiate the philosophy expounded by the preceding speakers. Indeed, spirits were present who had "come to greet the skeptic". One of the spirits communicated to a particular lady, giving family information which was accepted by her. The procedure was repeated with other members of the audience.
Schlesinger stated that he would convert eight skeptics, so there seem to have been a good many present. This would be done by means of "special tests in an adjoining tent." Warren was asked to be one of the company in this endeavour. The group moved next door, and Warren and a Mrs Templeton were ushered into a separate enclosure some distance away. Schlesinger then performed his speciality, the "Living and Dead Test".
In this test a person writes down the names of five individuals, one of whom is dead. The paper is torn into slips, each with one name on, and these are placed in a hat. Mrs Templeton went first, and her deceased nominee was correctly picked out. At this point Schlesinger informed her that a spirit wished to speak to her privately, and she obligingly left (this begs the question of how necessary the medium was to the communication).
It was now Warren's turn to write out some names. Schlesinger handed him one of the slips, and asked him if "Harry McKnight" was deceased, to which Warren replied in the affirmative. This seemed to be another hit. As a variation on the standard test, Warren was requested to write out three slips bearing the names of a city and a disease, one of which stated the city in which, and the disease by which, Mc Knight had died.
These too went into the hat, but this time the doctor was wrong twice. "Let's try it again" he said, and the pieces of paper went back into the hat. Warren noticed that the third one, which had to contain the required information, had its corner turned down. Schlesinger unsurprisingly picked the correct slip. Warren returned to the main tent.
Schlesinger must have smelled a rat, because shortly afterwards he came in, and again asked if McKnight were dead. Warren said that in fact that gentleman was very much alive. At this a hum arose from the assembly. Schlesinger grandly announced that Warren had come with a falsehood, and had received a falsehood, being thereby defeated in his subterfuge. Warren clearly did not agree, and pointed out that the spirits should have been able to distinguish between truth and falsehood. (Why Warren said this is not clear – it was possible that the spirits had informed Schlesinger of the deception as he seemed to have worked the ruse out; presumably Warren was implying that they should have done so at the time.)
After that the proceedings degenerated into farce. Warren was confronted by a woman who berated him over a spiritualist scandal he had investigated. A lady had been involved who was known to Warren's accuser, to which Warren tartly replied that it did the latter no credit. Her husband promptly challenged him to a duel, and the journalist had to warn the aggrieved spouse to take care in the presence of ladies. Warren disingenuously claimed that he had not come to cause dissension, but as far as he was concerned the Life and Death test had been a failure. At this some "excitement" ensued, but it soon died down, and Warren took his leave.
That there were no hard feelings on the newspaper's side was attested to by the fact that the camp's programme for that day was printed at the end of the article. The most surprising thing about this report is the amount of space it had been allotted on the front page. It must have been a slow news day.
SKEPTICISM - 1895 STYLE
Skepticism is nothing new, and an amusing newspaper report from the end of the nineteenth century describes how one reporter challenged a medium - at peril of his life.
The front page of an American paper, The Herald, for 22 July1895, carried an article by journalist Harry A Warren. The previous day he had attended the annual camp meeting of the Southern Californian spiritualists' association which was being held at Santa Monica. He claimed that he had borne no prior feelings of animosity towards the subject, and had been instructed to give a fair and impartial account of the proceedings.
These began with a flag-raising ceremony and patriotic songs, after which the association's president gave an uplifting speech. He was followed by more speakers, one of whom acknowledged that there was much fraud in spiritualism. Then Dr Louis Schlesinger (a well-known medium of the period and publisher of the spiritualist newspaper Carrier Dove, though the report consistently misspells his name as "Schlessinger") was introduced to the audience, around whom succeeding events revolve.
Some biographical details for Dr Schlesinger are given. He was born in Liverpool in 1832, and had emigrated to the US at the age of 16. He was Jewish until middle age, when he became a spiritualist. He was a wealthy businessman (the implication being that he was not in mediumship for the money). Harry Warren had met him before, and Dr Schlesinger had expressed the desire to give him a personal demonstration.
The medium said that his role was to substantiate the philosophy expounded by the preceding speakers. Indeed, spirits were present who had "come to greet the skeptic". One of the spirits communicated to a particular lady, giving family information which was accepted by her. The procedure was repeated with other members of the audience.
Schlesinger stated that he would convert eight skeptics, so there seem to have been a good many present. This would be done by means of "special tests in an adjoining tent." Warren was asked to be one of the company in this endeavour. The group moved next door, and Warren and a Mrs Templeton were ushered into a separate enclosure some distance away. Schlesinger then performed his speciality, the "Living and Dead Test".
In this test a person writes down the names of five individuals, one of whom is dead. The paper is torn into slips, each with one name on, and these are placed in a hat. Mrs Templeton went first, and her deceased nominee was correctly picked out. At this point Schlesinger informed her that a spirit wished to speak to her privately, and she obligingly left (this begs the question of how necessary the medium was to the communication).
It was now Warren's turn to write out some names. Schlesinger handed him one of the slips, and asked him if "Harry McKnight" was deceased, to which Warren replied in the affirmative. This seemed to be another hit. As a variation on the standard test, Warren was requested to write out three slips bearing the names of a city and a disease, one of which stated the city in which, and the disease by which, Mc Knight had died.
These too went into the hat, but this time the doctor was wrong twice. "Let's try it again" he said, and the pieces of paper went back into the hat. Warren noticed that the third one, which had to contain the required information, had its corner turned down. Schlesinger unsurprisingly picked the correct slip. Warren returned to the main tent.
Schlesinger must have smelled a rat, because shortly afterwards he came in, and again asked if McKnight were dead. Warren said that in fact that gentleman was very much alive. At this a hum arose from the assembly. Schlesinger grandly announced that Warren had come with a falsehood, and had received a falsehood, being thereby defeated in his subterfuge. Warren clearly did not agree, and pointed out that the spirits should have been able to distinguish between truth and falsehood. (Why Warren said this is not clear – it was possible that the spirits had informed Schlesinger of the deception as he seemed to have worked the ruse out; presumably Warren was implying that they should have done so at the time.)
After that the proceedings degenerated into farce. Warren was confronted by a woman who berated him over a spiritualist scandal he had investigated. A lady had been involved who was known to Warren's accuser, to which Warren tartly replied that it did the latter no credit. Her husband promptly challenged him to a duel, and the journalist had to warn the aggrieved spouse to take care in the presence of ladies. Warren disingenuously claimed that he had not come to cause dissension, but as far as he was concerned the Life and Death test had been a failure. At this some "excitement" ensued, but it soon died down, and Warren took his leave.
That there were no hard feelings on the newspaper's side was attested to by the fact that the camp's programme for that day was printed at the end of the article. The most surprising thing about this report is the amount of space it had been allotted on the front page. It must have been a slow news day.
Thursday, 4 February 2010
Review of ESPTest software (1992)
This review is available in Lexscien, the online library which carries the Society for Psychical Research's publications, so normally I would not include it here. However, the author of the software has long included it on his website without permission, and has labelled it as his copyright, despite my occasional protest. More to the point, he must have transcribed it by hand, and while he deleted a paragraph which was printed twice in the original (proof reading of SPR publications is much better these days) he has introduced a number of spelling errors which look ugly. As more people are likely to see it on Mr Mosier's website than in the online library, I thought it worth making it easily available in its correct form. Apart from deleting the duplicated paragraph, the review here is the text as originally appeared in The Psi Researcher magazine No. 7, p.16, in 1992. To give an idea of its vintage, the program originally came on a 5.5" floppy. It is still available, now as a free download from Mr Mosier's site, so even better value than when it first appeared. His website also says that unless the user has a really old machine, the music won't play, which is a bonus!
SOFTWARE
ESP TEST Phil Mosier, 2728 Bridgeford Drive, Sacramento, California 95833, USA
This is a computer program designed to test clairvoyance and precognition. To run it, an IBM personal computer or compatible, with a CGA card, is required. The author claims that it is suitable for beginners and those more experienced in parapsychology alike, and indeed its operation is fairly straightforward. An extensive on-line manual is included with the package which includes instructions on how to load the software, how the program works, and how to analyse the results.
It runs in two modes, clairvoyance and precognition. In the first a target, designed to look like a back of a playing card, is presented onscreen and the subject attempts to guess which of five symbols is on the 'reverse'; in the latter, the subject guesses before the card is displayed. The targets are not the usual Zener symbols, but are a treble clef, heart, yin/yang symbol, four-leafed clover and a kind of gem design. The target position is changed on each trial, and trials are presented in groups of twenty-five.
Other parameters which can be altered are the colour of the screen (a choice of red, blue or black) and variety of feedback. A choice is offered of sound and visual reinforcement on all trials, just on hits or misses, or on no trials. All these conditions can be permutated to make it possible to see if a particular combination is conducive to scoring. These parameters are included in the record file, along with response latency, date and time (taken from the system clock) so that a variety of questions can be asked about those aspects which might be psi-enhancing or inhibiting.
The scores of different individuals or conditions can be saved in separate files for ease of analysis (the file name can be chosen at the opening menu). These can be concatenated if necessary. They can also be exported to other programs, such as a spread sheet or statistical package, for further analysis. The file name is saved in a field in each record so that a record can be linked to its parent file.
The programme automatically computes the binomial probability and Chi-square significance for the file. An overall analysis is provided, indicating how the subject has done. Further analyses are also carried out on hits vs misses according to the target, its location in the row and response time. The documentation does not mention that the Chi-square test is unreliable with small numbers, and that therefore too few trials could give misleading results.
ESP TEST is shareware, which means that users are granted a limited licence to use it on a trial basis. It can be copied freely, but it is expected by the author that those wishing to continue using it would seek registration. The cost of this is currently $35, for which the purchaser is entitled to a bound manual, annual newsletter and software updates.
Shareware has a poor reputation because of the possibly of viruses being inserted which would subsequently damage a hard disk. The review copy of this program came directly from the author, and as part of the review it was tested with 'F-Prot' anti-viral software, which gave it a clean bill of health.
The computerised part of the package is fairly straightforward, and does have advantages, such as providing security of targets and an endless deck. The program even includes the Pascal source code for those users who want to see how it works. I do, though, have several minor criticisms.
The main one is that the manual, despite the claim that it "is designed for the beginning users of a computer", does not make the necessary statistics as easy to understand as it could. There is a section which explains how the analysis is arrived at, but it is far too brief. Various scenarios of the results which might be obtained are given, with their implications, and this is more helpful. But the information provided on the screen, apart from the announcement that one is or is not exhibiting psi, could be made easier to digest.
Other quibbles are, firstly, that the files are compressed on the disk. This does save space, but having to expand them could be confusing for the novice. Secondly, the opening music is extremely irritating, despite the stated affection of its composer, although it can mercifully be turned off. Thirdly, proof reading of the manual could have been more thorough. Finally, it would have been more respectful towards Louisa Rhine to have referred to her as "Dr" rather than "Mrs" Rhine, as if she were an appendage to her husband rather than a major figure in parapsychology in her own right.
Of course because the choice of target is left to the computer it will not be truly random, raising the problem of bias. This might preclude publication of results in serious journals. As a screening device to identify individuals with potential, or for generating hypotheses for more formal testing, this software could be useful, and is certainly good value for money.
Tom Ruffles
SOFTWARE
ESP TEST Phil Mosier, 2728 Bridgeford Drive, Sacramento, California 95833, USA
This is a computer program designed to test clairvoyance and precognition. To run it, an IBM personal computer or compatible, with a CGA card, is required. The author claims that it is suitable for beginners and those more experienced in parapsychology alike, and indeed its operation is fairly straightforward. An extensive on-line manual is included with the package which includes instructions on how to load the software, how the program works, and how to analyse the results.
It runs in two modes, clairvoyance and precognition. In the first a target, designed to look like a back of a playing card, is presented onscreen and the subject attempts to guess which of five symbols is on the 'reverse'; in the latter, the subject guesses before the card is displayed. The targets are not the usual Zener symbols, but are a treble clef, heart, yin/yang symbol, four-leafed clover and a kind of gem design. The target position is changed on each trial, and trials are presented in groups of twenty-five.
Other parameters which can be altered are the colour of the screen (a choice of red, blue or black) and variety of feedback. A choice is offered of sound and visual reinforcement on all trials, just on hits or misses, or on no trials. All these conditions can be permutated to make it possible to see if a particular combination is conducive to scoring. These parameters are included in the record file, along with response latency, date and time (taken from the system clock) so that a variety of questions can be asked about those aspects which might be psi-enhancing or inhibiting.
The scores of different individuals or conditions can be saved in separate files for ease of analysis (the file name can be chosen at the opening menu). These can be concatenated if necessary. They can also be exported to other programs, such as a spread sheet or statistical package, for further analysis. The file name is saved in a field in each record so that a record can be linked to its parent file.
The programme automatically computes the binomial probability and Chi-square significance for the file. An overall analysis is provided, indicating how the subject has done. Further analyses are also carried out on hits vs misses according to the target, its location in the row and response time. The documentation does not mention that the Chi-square test is unreliable with small numbers, and that therefore too few trials could give misleading results.
ESP TEST is shareware, which means that users are granted a limited licence to use it on a trial basis. It can be copied freely, but it is expected by the author that those wishing to continue using it would seek registration. The cost of this is currently $35, for which the purchaser is entitled to a bound manual, annual newsletter and software updates.
Shareware has a poor reputation because of the possibly of viruses being inserted which would subsequently damage a hard disk. The review copy of this program came directly from the author, and as part of the review it was tested with 'F-Prot' anti-viral software, which gave it a clean bill of health.
The computerised part of the package is fairly straightforward, and does have advantages, such as providing security of targets and an endless deck. The program even includes the Pascal source code for those users who want to see how it works. I do, though, have several minor criticisms.
The main one is that the manual, despite the claim that it "is designed for the beginning users of a computer", does not make the necessary statistics as easy to understand as it could. There is a section which explains how the analysis is arrived at, but it is far too brief. Various scenarios of the results which might be obtained are given, with their implications, and this is more helpful. But the information provided on the screen, apart from the announcement that one is or is not exhibiting psi, could be made easier to digest.
Other quibbles are, firstly, that the files are compressed on the disk. This does save space, but having to expand them could be confusing for the novice. Secondly, the opening music is extremely irritating, despite the stated affection of its composer, although it can mercifully be turned off. Thirdly, proof reading of the manual could have been more thorough. Finally, it would have been more respectful towards Louisa Rhine to have referred to her as "Dr" rather than "Mrs" Rhine, as if she were an appendage to her husband rather than a major figure in parapsychology in her own right.
Of course because the choice of target is left to the computer it will not be truly random, raising the problem of bias. This might preclude publication of results in serious journals. As a screening device to identify individuals with potential, or for generating hypotheses for more formal testing, this software could be useful, and is certainly good value for money.
Tom Ruffles
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
